Monday Market Overview

Back in the saddle :)

  
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Hello everyone! Excuse me while I shake off the dust and dirt on my boots. I have been away for a month as most of you know.

I have been hard at work on my crypto course. I hope to have it out by November 1st.

Before we get into the market update, I wanted to say thank you very much for following along. I hope I have been able to provide you will simple and concise value.


Portfolio Update

I am heavy BTC and will remain that way as BTC has the biggest TAM (total addressable market). I hold no ETH and have moved it into the Solana ecosystem. If this market is bullish, I think SOL will be the stronger bet. This doesn’t mean I am not bullish on ETH. I actually am very much so. I am using NFTs to express that. NFTs to me are leverage long on ETH - bigger upside with more risk. This is why they represent a small % of the portfolio. I also have a small position in Serum (SRM).

More about them here.


Crypto Market Overview - September 27, 2021

After a recovery off the lows reaching ~ $53,000 - bitcoin has faced some headwinds. Tether FUD, China FUD, taper talks, regulatory scrutiny from Gary Gensler, equities dump, and speculative crash looming, have stalled the tailwinds since $29,000.

We have support at $40k and resistance at $45k. I am expecting chop for the next few weeks before continuation into the upper range of $50k.

Funding is flat to negative, which is a good sign as little leverage needs to be wiped from the market dragging it down rapidly (forced selling). The market isn’t being greedy and could lead to a short squeeze/supply squeeze as long-term holders continue to buy heavily. For the best on this topic, I recommend the following - Willy Woo & Will Clemente.

While still in recovery, there are still stablecoins on the sidelines waiting to move into the markets. Traders are wondering if we are just in a compliancy shoulder and could roll over again. There is still a waiting game at play. It looks similar to September of last year where we rallied, cooled off, then moved higher in Q4.

Hashrate is in solid recovery from the China mining ban. This is a healthy sign as hash power (security) comes back online and gets distributed globally.

Our current headwinds seem to be Gary Gensler and how traditional markets want to hold up. (S&P and $ charts shown) Up or down? If we have dollar strength, then markets could range or drop further.

I talk about Gensler & crypto in this podcast if you want to check it out (Shout out Stache It Or Pass It for having me on again).


TLDR

Short term - Chop, chop, chop. Range.

Mid-term - Retest $50k mid-October. $90k target for the end of October.

Long term - $100k BTC next 4-6 months


Trader Highlight

That is all, have a great week!

-Molesy


As a reminder, this is not financial advice. Do your own research. 

Nothing in this newsletter constitutes investment, accounting, tax, or legal advice or is a recommendation that you purchase, sell or hold any security or other investment or that you pursue any investment style or strategy.